Sri Lanka’s new president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, dissolved Parliament on Tuesday night and announced a parliamentary election to be held in less than two months to strengthen his power following a weekend election victory.
According to a government announcement, the Parliament was dissolved at midnight on Tuesday, and the parliamentary elections were scheduled for November 14. This move was anticipated as part of Dissanayake’s election strategy.
Dissanayake’s party holds only three seats in the 225-member Parliament, and his approval ratings have not changed after his victory in Saturday’s vote. The upcoming snap election is expected to help him maintain control of the chamber.
The dissolution occurred shortly after Dissanayake appointed a female MP from his alliance as the country’s prime minister. This unusual political manoeuvre was necessitated by the changing political landscape in Sri Lanka. As Dissanayake prepares for this political battle, he may encounter expected challenges.
Economic crisis and public expectations
At the forefront of AKD’s challenges is Sri Lanka’s ongoing economic crisis, marked by inflation, a weakened currency, and high foreign debt.
The public will expect quick solutions to the rising cost of living, fuel shortages, and shortages of essential commodities. Failure to address these matters immediately could erode the initial goodwill that accompanied his election.
AKD’s government must demonstrate its ability to manage the country’s resources responsibly. Social media posts highlighting the excessive number of vehicles owned by former ministry secretaries have caused public protests.
For many, these vehicles symbolise government excess and mismanagement in a bankrupt state. As AKD’s government has reduced the number of ministries, the public can expect such asset cuts, further scrutinising how resources will be managed in the new administration.
Political instability and legislative gridlock
AKD’s reform agenda may face strong opposition from the Parliament. If the NPP fails to secure a majority, opposition parties could block important proposals, leading to a deadlock and further political instability.
This instability undermines their ability to pass much-needed economic recovery legislation. It could delay reforms to reduce corruption and implement social reform, which are central to the NPP platform.
Ordinary citizens, especially those who voted for them, can quickly become disillusioned if they see little progress in economic recovery, job creation, and social welfare.
Young and urban voters, who had hoped for systemic change from the NPP, may lose faith in the party if it fails to deliver on its promises, as was seen in the “struggle” protest movement.
Challenges of Foreign Policy and Economic Recovery
Sri Lanka’s economic recovery heavily relies on international support. AKD’s government may struggle to secure foreign loans, aid packages, and investments essential for stabilising the economy without the necessary parliamentary backing.
This could result in worsening inflation, unemployment, and shortages of essential commodities, disproportionately affecting ordinary people.
Additionally, a politically divided Sri Lanka may find it challenging to maintain the confidence of international investors and diplomatic partners, including major regional powers such as India and China, as well as global institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Any misstep in foreign policy could significantly hinder economic recovery efforts.
Reforms and the dilution of coalition politics
The NPP’s ambitious reform agenda, which includes anti-corruption measures, decentralisation, and institutional reforms, may be weakened by opposition.
If the NPP is required to form a coalition government, it may have to make compromises that could down its progressive agenda, disappointing its supporters seeking significant change.
AKD could encounter internal challenges within the NPP as factions within the coalition for different priorities. These internal divisions may weaken the party’s leadership, making it even more difficult to govern effectively.
Opposition from traditional political forces
Failure to secure a majority may provide an opportunity for traditional political parties such as the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the United National Party (UNP), and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) to regroup and regain power.
These embattled parties can exploit any delay or failure by the NPP to present themselves as more experienced and stable alternatives.
The Rajapaksas and other influential political figures could use their platforms to rally their base, further derailing Dissanayake’s efforts to implement his reform agenda and maintain public support.
Racial and Minority Issues
Ethnic and religious divisions in Sri Lanka will pose another essential challenge. Although the NPP has adopted progressive positions on minority rights, there may still be suspicion from the Tamil and Muslim communities if AKD’s government fails to articulate and come up with concrete plans to address long-standing grievances.
For example, addressing land issues in the North East and initiating programs to provide justice to victims of civil war can go a long way in building confidence among minority communities.
Failure to effectively address these issues will allow opposition parties to drive a wedge between the NPP and minority voters. This situation weakens the party’s electoral prospects in the future.”
Building public confidence and maintaining momentum
As the newly elected president, Mr. Dissanayake must quickly build trust among voters, especially those who did not support him during the presidential election.
Although symbolic, his ability to demonstrate early achievements will be critical to convincing a broad segment of the population that his leadership can make a tangible difference.
For example, setting dates for local council elections in areas affected by military land acquisitions could signal his commitment to addressing minority grievances.
Immediate measures that yield tangible results will help build a “wall of public support” to protect the government from attacks by traditional political giants such as the UNP and SLPP. This will also make it difficult for the opposition to paint the government inexperienced or ineffective.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake faces a massive task in navigating Sri Lanka’s complex political environment.
With an upcoming general election and high public expectations, his government’s ability to deliver on promises of economic recovery, good governance, and social justice will be tested.
Balancing the demands of different voter groups, managing internal party dynamics, and managing opposition from entrenched political forces will be critical to the NPP’s success.
Without a majority in Parliament, Mr Dissanayake must manage these risks while maintaining public trust and staying true to his party’s policies.
The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but how he handles these obstacles will determine whether the NPP can keep its promise of change and bring lasting progress to the people of Sri Lanka.
English translation of the article written in Sinhala by Anuruddha Lokuhapuarachchi.
