Anura’s Visit to China and the Geopolitical Tensions in the Asian Region

It is a well-known fact that Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake is currently visiting China. As a leader from a leftist party, this visit to a communist state is notably significant. For his inaugural official visit, President Dissanayake chose India, where he received a particularly warm welcome, a privilege not afforded to previous Sri Lankan presidents. This indicates the attention that other countries give to Sri Lanka. Similarly, during his visit to China, the country’s leaders greeted the Sri Lankan president with great enthusiasm.

China – Sri Lanka Ties

President Anura is on this trip at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. He departed for China on the night of the 13th for an official visit from the 14th to the 17th. There is a strong relationship between China and Sri Lanka, with historical roots starting in 1964. That year, the leader of the People’s Republic of China, Zhou Enlai, visited Sri Lanka for an official tour.

At the end of his visit, the leaders of both countries signed a joint declaration. The Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall in Colombo, a source of pride for Sri Lankans, was constructed according to that agreement and funded by the Chinese government.

However, in 1965, the Sirimavo Bandaranaike government was replaced by a new administration, which reviewed the agreement and halted any active commitments. Nevertheless, when the Sirimavo Bandaranaike government returned to power in 1970, cooperation with the Chinese government was revived, and as a result, the long-delayed promises were finally fulfilled.

The Chinese-Sri Lankan friendship and cooperation led to the completion of projects ahead of the intended dates. Shu Xin Qian, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress representing the People’s Republic of China, attended the inauguration of the building.

Although diplomatic relations began then, connections between China and Sri Lanka go back to the Anuradhapura era, and historians note that ties existed even before monks from the region came to Sri Lanka.

Anura’s Visit Amidst Significant Relations

President Anura Kumar Dissanayake’s visit comes at a time when a profound relationship has been established between the two nations. Additionally, there is a notable aspect: the People’s Liberation Front, which Anura represents, has a special relationship with the Chinese Communist Party. Political analysts highlight that this connection may allow the current president to build a positive image with China and create investment opportunities.

This presents a chance for Anura Kumar Dissanayake to strengthen connections with the Chinese Communist Party and use it to enhance relations between the two countries. This is an opportune moment to attract Chinese investors by creating favourable investment opportunities.

Meetings with Xi Jinping

During this visit, President Anura is anticipated to discuss numerous sectors with President Xi Jinping. The Sri Lankan Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the president plans to talk with other diplomatic leaders, including Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress Zhao Lijie. Furthermore, discussions regarding technical and agricultural development and measures for poverty alleviation are planned, along with observing several related projects.

Sri Lanka’s Commitment to the ‘One China’ Policy

Another note is that the Sri Lankan government has stated its unwavering commitment to the ‘One China’ policy. Steps have been taken to endorse a cabinet resolution reflecting this commitment, indicating that the Sri Lankan government recognises only the People’s Republic of China as the lawful government of China and regards Taiwan as a part of China. The reiteration of this policy during the new government’s tenure is significant. However, the change in Sri Lanka’s stance on Tibet is notable—acknowledging Tibet as part of China.

India’s Watchful Eye on Sri Lanka-China Discussions

Tibet operates under a unique autonomous administrative structure under China, and India’s geographic proximity to Tibet cannot be overlooked in these discussions. Given this context, it is no secret that India closely monitors the agreements between China and Sri Lanka.

Recent cabinet approvals included signing several agreements related to humanitarian aid between the two nations. During a media briefing, Cabinet spokesperson Nalinda Jayatissa mentioned that an agreement between Chinese media outlets and Sri Lanka’s tourism promotion sector is also expected to be signed.

These discussions include agreements related to exporting chicken to the Chinese market and emergency humanitarian assistance. Thus, the reality of India’s attention to these matters is evident, especially with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi planning a visit to Sri Lanka.

In such an environment, placing “India First” gains considerable attention. Sri Lanka’s awareness in this regard aligns with India’s strategic interests. India also hopes to change its relations with China and prevent a repeat of the Chinese influence seen between 2007 and 2019.

The Trump Factor and China-Sri Lankan Relations

Discussions surrounding Donald Trump’s upcoming second-term inauguration and the implications of American initiatives are also crucial. Following Trump’s inauguration, a trade war between China and the U.S. is certain. Scrutiny of the potential impacts and advantageous circumstances for Sri Lanka during such tumultuous times is essential.

Many believe that a trade war between America and China would also have adverse repercussions for Sri Lanka. However, China is anticipated to provide significant investment opportunities in this context, particularly in industrial zones like Iranamadu and Hambantota. Should the United States express opposition to these projects, there have yet to be organised discussions regarding the actions Sri Lanka would need to take.

If opposition from the U.S. arises, customs duties on garment exports could be imposed, leading to a significant financial loss for Sri Lanka. Therefore, while China may offer advantages, dependency on America could pose risks.

Could Sri Lanka Benefit from a Trade War?

Moreover, should a China-American trade war occur, Sri Lanka could also manoeuvre to take advantage of such circumstances. It is inevitable that America will impose taxes on China, and during such a scenario, China will likely confront procurement issues for raw materials for production. Sri Lanka could secure substantial benefits if it strategically capitalises on this situation.

On the 10th, Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, clarified points regarding President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s trip to China. He mentioned that it was his first visit after taking office. He regards this trip as a significant opportunity to enhance relations between the two countries, emphasising that China and Sri Lanka have maintained mutual friendship for decades.

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